What
happened after Emmerson Mnanagagwa’s five promises to remake Zimbabwe
Give credit where it is due.
The coup d’etat orchestrated by former spy
chief Emmerson Mnangagwa and his military compadre General Constantino Chiwenga
two years ago was genius of a kind, a particularly malevolent kind.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Mnangagwa is more excoriated than the man, his
erstwhile chief Robert Mugabe, that he ousted. As 93-year old Mugabe
was humiliated and harried from power by greedy politicians and power-hungry
soldiers, a worse fate could await Mnangagwa as popular anger grows towards
elite corruption and repression.
The putsch of November 2017 was orchestrated
with marketing expertise.
General Sibusiso Moyo reassured an anxious
citizenry that the threat to public order had been countered. A ruthless cabal
around President Mugabe, the so-called G-40 which included his wife Grace and
political dilettante Jonathan Moyo, had been defeated by ‘our heroic armed
forces.’
In truth, it wasn’t a fight. Gens Moyo, Chiwenga and
the other plotters called in a gullible commander of the presidential guard and
then detained him. Yes, there were running battles between the G-40 factions
and the so-called Lacoste group, as well as spies and soldiers, for control of
ZANU-PF. It was all about factional rivalries.
The
genius came in when the authors of the putsch persuaded Zimbabweans that the
overthrow of Mugabe was being done in their name and persuaded tens of
thousands of them to march in solidarity through the streets of Harare,
Bulawayo, Gweru and all the main cities.
Meanwhile ‘our hero’ Mnangagwa had fled the country with his
son. Tales
of his derring-do sneaking across the border with Mozambique have been relayed
in detail by a Rhodesian journalist in the interests of promoting a new
liberation narrative.
So, was Mnangagwa really the man who
risked his life to free Zimbabwe from the Mugabe tyranny?
On his triumphal return to his homeland,
Mnangagwa told us with a straight face: “the voice of the people is the voice
of God!”. How has that gone?
Mnangagwa was inaugurated as President
on 27 November 2017, promising a cornucopia of political and economic reforms.
In front of regional leaders, foreign diplomats and opposition
politicians, Mnangagwa
pledged to undo the results of Mugabe’s 40 year rule: to fix the ruined
economy, to open the isolated country for business, to restore democracy and
the rule of law, to fight corruption, and to revisit compensation to white
farmers for land.
But the main event was his commitment to
free, fair and peaceful elections. Everything that Comrade Mnangagwa promised
that day was what the country needed and had been long denied by Mugabe and
Zanu PF. What went wrong?
Test One:
Freeing the people
The first test for the post-coup regime
was its openness to political reform. Under Mugabe, the ruling party had shown
extreme intolerance. Witness Gukurahundi in which 20,000 opposition supporters
in Matebeleland were massacred, forcing their leader Joshua Nkomo to capitulate
and join a unity government under Zanu PF.
That was a template for Zanu PF’s
treatment of oppositionists. By the 2000s, it had found ways to target the
extreme violence more narrowly, then added a panoply of propaganda, spying
strategies and artful electoral rigging.
Yet all that was not enough to stop
Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) from getting
more votes than Mugabe in the first round of 2008 elections. That prompted one
of the most brutal fightbacks of murder and torture that a ruling party has
wreaked on its opponents, anywhere.
Soldiers, police and youth militia were
dragooned into the campaign run by the Joint Operations Command, which took
power in the wake of Mugabe’s defeat. It succeeded because it forced Tsvangirai
to withdraw from the second round of the vote. It failed because the elections
has lost any legitimacy.
What did Mnangagwa do to break with this
history in 2017? He promised to open up politics. He visited the terminally-ill
Tsvangirai, offered state funds to pay for his treatment and a new house.
For a while, Mnangagwa tolerated
criticism in the media and by civil society on subjects such as Gukurahundi.
He, or his handlers, started posting on social media about the “new Zimbabwe”.
Some foreign diplomats, especially Britain’s Ambassador, offered fulsome praise
of Mnangagwa’s leadership.
Between the putsch and elections in July
2018, there was an outbreak of political liberalism. Opposition parties made
full use of it. But inside the ruling party complex, Mnangagwa’s people purged
all those associated with Grace Mugabe and her G-40 group, many were arrested
and prosecuted on corruption charges. Others fled into exile. The restrictions
on public meetings and protests remained. There was a feel good factor after
the putsch but it wasn’t enshrined in law.
Test Two:
Holding credible elections
Contrary to pledges for free elections,
Mnangagwa and Zanu PF stuck to their old script.
They kept control of the Zimbabwe
Election Commission and Secretariat with its compliment of state security
agents directing operations.
The commission failed to release the
voters roll in time. When they did, it was plagued with irregularities. Again,
Zanu PF used the army whose presence in the countryside intimidated voters. It
manipulated its subsidy scheme known as “Command Agriculture” to win support
from rural farmers, the majority of the country’s workforce.
Zanu PF dominated the state media,
denying equal time to its opponents. The panoply of Mugabe-era strictures on
access to information and rights of assembly stayed in place.
The tabulation, transmission and announcement
of elections results pointed to political interference. With all that help,
Mnangagwa managed only to get 50.8% of the votes. There were far more protests
than celebrations as the reality dawned on the country.
Responding to an appeal launched by
opposition parties, the Constitutional Court ruled in favour of Mnangagwa. But
it took almost 18 month to explain why.
Test
three: Respecting human rights
As Mugabe’s security capo, Mnangagwa
struggled to convince the sceptics he was willing to respect human rights. The
sceptics were soon proved right.
On 1 August in response to public
protest against delays in announcing the election results, Mnangagwa sent in
the military. Six unarmed civilians and scores more injured in full view of
election observers and the international media.
As the furore grew, Mnangagwa appointed
a commission of enquiry led by Kgalema Motlanthe, former President of South
African. It recommended that the officers involved should be held to account.
Instead, Mnangagwa promoted the commander of the unit responsible for the
killings, and none of the other perpetrators were sanctioned.
In January 2019, citizens, angered by
spiralling fuel prices, took to the streets. Mnangagwa sent in the army again.
Under cover of an internet shutdown, hired thugs and soldiers beat, raped and
tortured anyone they deemed linked to the protests. Mnangagwa would later boast
that he had given the army instructions to use a “special whip laced in salty
water.” After the protests, thousands of civilians were arbitrarily arrested
and tried, and hundreds sentenced to years in gaol.
As the economy continued to nosedive and
activists and the opposition organised protests, the state hit back with
violence and abductions often using freelance thugs as a kind of third force.
After public health sector workers mobilised in protest at wage cuts after
massive devaluation of the currency, the leader of the doctors’ union Peter
Magombeyi was abducted, detained for 5 days, tortured and then dumped in the
outskirts of Harare.
The government blamed it on the “third
force”. It then sacked thousands of doctors, paralysing the health service.
Activists for Gukurahundi accountability
such as Zenzele Ndebele, Thandekile Moyo, Mkhululi Hanana were all harassed,
followed and then received threats from unidentified individuals.
Others such as Tatenda Mombeyarara of
the Citizens Manifesto and Amalgamated Rural Teachers Union of Zimbabwe (ARTUZ)
leader, Obert Masaraure, Samantha Kureya, “Gonyeti,” a comedian and Ian Makiwa,
“Platinum Prince,” a musician were abducted, beaten, tortured then released.
MDC activist Blessing Toronga was
abducted from his house in Glen Norah Township after the protests on 24
January. Two months later his body was found in an advanced state of
decomposition. Then the regime charged civil society activists and opposition
leaders with treason, keeping them tied up in Kafka-esque trials.
Test
four: Fighting corruption
Under Mugabe, a predatory elite of Zanu
PF officials and their business allies prioritised personal wealth over public
interest. After his promise to change all this, Mnangagwa’s appointments were
scrutinised.
He appointed and retained corrupt
ministers – some of whom, he has now sought to arrest. He set up an
anti-corruption unit in his office which has delivered nothing.
He has allowed businsessmen such as Kuda
Tagwirei and Sakunda, in partnership with the Dutch-based Trafigura Group, to
retain a monopoly over fuel imports. The government’s business cronies have had
preferential access to foreign exchange which they recycle into Zimbabwean
dollars at hugely profitable rates.
Sakunda redeemed most of its government
bonds at a preferential rate which involved the creation of over two billion
Zimbabwean dollars without the foreign exchange to back it up – further
weakening the revived local currency. Sakunda, which contributed to Zanu-PF’s
election campaign, was a prime beneficiary of Mnangagwa’s Command Agriculture
scheme.
The government hit rock bottom as the
worsening regional drought meant that half of Zimbabwe’s 15 million people
would face serious food shortages. When it emerged from international agencies
that the government had signed a secret contract to import maize from Tanzania
for the hungry masses over twice the market price, there was radio silence.
Test
five: Fixing the economy
Chanting his “open for business”
Mnangagwa pledged to turn around the economy, creating jobs and allowing its
talented people to develop the country. Within weeks of taking over, he boasted
that he was bringing in over $10 billion of new investments from his friends in
the mining business.
Most of these “friends” turned out to be
corrupt Rhodesians and their English associates. Almost none of the investment
arrived.
Mnangagwa appointed Mthuli Ncube, a
former Chief Economist at the African Development Bank, as Minister of Finance
to preside over a reform programme, including more swingeing cuts to public
spending and the reintroduction of the Zimbabwe dollar. But Ncube lacked any
political muscle. Zanu-PF’s chefs and their business pals circumvented the
reforms and continued the exploit the system. Bankers are placing bets on when
Ncube will be fired – should he choose to take a stand on the glaring
malfeasance – or resign.
The economic tally of Mnangagwa’s rule
is a return to the hyper-inflation a decade ago, the reintroduction of the
Zimbabwe dollar has been sabotaged by his business friends, and the health and
education services, the best achievement of Mugabe early years, are in ruins.
And tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs.
Any prospect of the government
restructuring its foreign debt and bringing in new capital have receded into
the distance.
After the
meltdown
Not only has Mnangagwa’s regime failed
all the tests he set out but the situation has reached breaking point. It has
squandered the hope and the goodwill of Zimbabweans. It has run out of excuses.
Beyond the sponsored Zanu-PF cheerleaders, no one believes sanctions are
responsible for the latest economic destruction.
Can Mnangagwa stop the country veering
towards the cliff’s edge? It’s possible but most unlikely. Nearly 80 years old,
Mnangagwa might want to leave a legacy for his country other than misery and
repression. But he shows no signs of it. In late November, he thought it a good
use of state resources to have ten streets named after him in the country’s
main cities.
The best way out for Mnangagwa would
involve inclusive negotiations, preferably mediated by a credible regional
politician, to address the national crisis.
Naledi Pandor, South Africa’s Foreign
Minister, says her government, which is owed billions by Mnangagwa’s regime,
stands ready to help. Her proviso was that it must include civil society and
opposition politicians.
Further chaos and destruction beckons
without a fresh initiative. The MDC will have to be more deliberate and
innovative if it wants to stay relevant. It needs to support the new generation
of activists and show real leadership.
As regionalism and ethnic nationalism
gain ground, there has been a spate of localised violence; there are some in
the regime who want to exploit chaos to cling on to power. That would be their
final betrayal. And it will blow up in their faces.
Enter the
military again?
The only conceivable beneficiaries from
that would be the people with guns. Not the fat cat generals, air marshals and
spymasters but the angry young officers who have seen this predatory elite
steal their country and their futures. Their revenge – for the ruling elite’s
crass betrayal of the liberation cause – could turn into Zimbabwe’s ugliest
moment yet.
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