2019 saw record U.S. airstrikes in Somalia. Why is
al-Shabab surging?
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| The aftermath of a car bomb at a checkpoint near Somalia’s Parliament in Mogadishu on Jan. 8. At least four people were killed in the attack by al-Shabab. (Said Yusuf Warsame/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) |
Just as soon as the U.S. military closed out a
year in which it struck al-Shabab militants more times than ever — at a pace of
just over one airstrike per week — the Somali militant group carried out its
most
brazen and successful attack on U.S. forces in its
history, killing one soldier and two private contractors, and destroying six
aircraft at an airstrip in Kenya.
It was symbolic of the greater U.S. effort against
al-Shabab: Since the Trump administration loosened rules of engagement in
Somalia in March 2017, leading to a more aggressive use of airstrikes, the
group has staged nearly 900 attacks on civilians alone, not counting hundreds
more against U.S., Somali, Kenyan and other armed forces.
“The rate of al-Shabab’s attacks, at least against
civilians, is higher now than before,” said Hussein Sheikh-Ali, a former
national security adviser to the Somali president who took part in discussions
with Pentagon officials as they weighed changing their rules of engagement in
2017.
Nearly 2,000 Somali civilians have probably been killed
by al-Shabab since that change, according to data from the Armed Conflict
Location & Event Data Project, or
ACLED, a nonprofit research group that aggregates reports of
violence. Al-Shabab continues to control almost the entirety of rural southern
and central Somalia, while staging such regular attacks on the capital,
Mogadishu, where residents know any trip into the city center could be their
last.
Al-Shabab is not at its strongest point. In 2011, before
a 20,000-strong African Union force intervened, and before the United States
ramped up its airstrikes, al-Shabab controlled every city in southern Somalia
and appeared on the verge of taking Mogadishu. The group’s goal is still the
same, however: to chase away, or at least outlast, foreign troops in Somalia,
clearing the way for a broader takeover in which it could impose a strict
version of Islamic law.
In the past few years, the group has repeatedly
demonstrated its ability to make powerful explosives and destabilize Somalia’s
fledgling government. Since its inception in 2006, the group has carried out
more than 10,000 attacks in Somalia and nearly 300 in Kenya. More than 20 have
been killed by al-Shabab in Kenya in just the past six weeks.
“Al-Shabab has had to adapt. But adapt it did,” said Ken
Menkhaus, a Somalia scholar who has given expert
testimony to
successive U.S. Congresses. “It has fully penetrated local governments and
institutions, has a robust network of informants and operatives, extorts
‘taxes’ from all Somali citizens and instills fear of assassination in anyone
who considers opposing them.”
According to ACLED data, al-Shabab’s tactics have shifted
slightly but significantly since March 2017, when the rules of engagement were
loosened. In the years before, around 70 percent of al-Shabab attacks
could be classified as “battles” with government-aligned armed forces. In the
years since, that number has dropped to about half, with a marked uptick in the
use of bombs, which more typically target civilians.
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| Somali soldiers stand guard at a destroyed building in Mogadishu in March after a day-long siege by al-Shabab left at least two dozen people dead. (Farah Abdi Warsameh/AP) |
To some observers, the shift indicates a resilience that
more and more airstrikes won’t be able to counter. Instead, they say, it has
opened up the U.S. military to scorn from the Somali public, who are feeling
the brunt of al-Shabab’s attacks.
“By making it a ‘kill as much as you can’ strategy, it
has become hard to avoid collateral damage and civilian casualties whether by
the airstrikes themselves or because they provoke al-Shabab,” said Sheikh-Ali.
“I believe that this strategy will not in any way affect al-Shabab’s short- or
long-term capabilities. The U.S. is just playing whack-a-mole. Somali people
don’t take this strategy seriously anymore.”
As part of the thousands of troops that the United States
has stationed across East Africa, 500 are on the ground on a small number of
bases within Somalia. Beyond planning airstrikes, their mission, according to
U.S. Africa Command, is mostly to train the Somali national army, to assist
with intelligence gathering and to occasionally accompany Somali troops in
ground raids.
About 300 U.S. soldiers and military contractors are
stationed in Kenya, bolstering the missions in Somalia. The al-Shabab attack
Jan. 5 on an airstrip used by those U.S. forces was a major setback
because of American casualties and the loss of high-value equipment.
Col. Christopher Karns, a U.S. Africa Command spokesman,
also acknowledged in an email to The Washington Post, that some of the
attackers escaped.
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| Airmen from the 475th Expeditionary Air Base Squadron take part in a flag-raising ceremony in August at Camp Simba in Kenya. On Jan. 5, Al-Shabab attacked an airstrip attached to the base, killing three Americans. (Staff Sgt. Lexie West/U.S. Air Force/AP) |
The White House has not commented publicly on the deaths
of the three Americans in that attack, nor has the president done so
independently. The U.S. military has been unusually outspoken in its public
response, which included sending its top brass in East Africa to the base
adjoining the airstrip that was attacked.
“Al-Shabaab is ruthless and must be dealt with before the
network expands its reach to other places, to include their stated desire to
strike U.S. citizens on the U.S. homeland,” said Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, the
commander of U.S. forces in Africa, in a statement last week. “This
al-Qaida-aligned terrorist network has demonstrated an ability to conduct
external attacks previously and will continue to do so unless they are
countered where they reside.”
During the Obama administration, airstrikes were reserved
for high-value targets and they killed al-Shabab’s leader and co-founder, Ahmed
Abdi Godane, as well as its top explosives expert. Other airstrikes targeted
meetings where more than 100 suspected al-Shabab fighters might have been
present.
“Airstrikes are only one means and not the ultimate
solution,” said Karns. “They do create organizational confusion in the ranks of
al-Shabab and offer additional effects. Diplomacy, development and defense all
need to come together to truly counter the influence and dismantle al-Shabab.”
The African Union’s force in Somalia had intended to draw
down over the course of this year, but many experts expect that mission to be
extended given how strong al-Shabab continues to be. Somalia is planning
national elections this year, which are expected to be targeted relentlessly by
al-Shabab.
Sheikh-Ali and Menkhaus said that although the Pentagon’s
airstrike-heavy strategy doesn’t seem to be tipping the scale, foreign intervention
can only achieve so much in Somalia, and the only way the country will overcome
the threat from al-Shabab is with a government stronger than the weak and
notoriously corrupt one it has now.
“At this point, it is worth asking if the U.S.
counterterrorism mission in Somalia is in need of a fundamental review,” said
Menkhaus. “The current policy is based on a set of assumptions about al-Shabab
and the Somali government that do not appear tenable.”
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