Chocolate danger: Ghana's cocoa output hit hard by dry, hot winds

Bad weather also damaged crop in Ivory Coast, which is world's top cocoa bean producer.

Overly dry and hot winds in West Africa are damaging prospects for cocoa output for the second year in Ghana, the world's second-largest producer, sources told Reuters News Agency.

Cocoa futures on Intercontinental Exchange are near their highest in three years, driven in part by the adverse weather, which has also damaged the crop in neighbouring Ivory Coast, the world's top cocoa producer.

Four local traders and exporters, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said they see the 2019-2020 Ghanaian crop at 790,000 to 820,000 tonnes, a shortfall that if realised could help drive global prices higher. It is well short of the 875,000 tonnes forecast in a Reuters poll in late January.

A source at Ghanaian cocoa regulator, Ghana Cocoa Board (or Cocobod), said the weather is a big concern. "It has not been raining for more than four months and the heat is so strong there are very few flowers, cherelles [young cocoa pods] and pods in the fields," said an Accra-based exporter.

Between 2018 and 2019, Ghanaian cocoa output totalled 815,000 tonnes, according to the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO), far below the international body's initial projection of 900,000 tonnes issued in February 2019. The ICCO is expected to publish its first projections for 2019-2020 crops later this month. 

"People have been reducing their numbers but not by 50,000 tonnes. Arrivals so far have been quite good and at this stage, [there's only] the mid crop and tail-end of the main crop [left]," an analyst at a large chocolate maker said.

Cocoa arrivals at Ghanaian ports stood at 596,000 tonnes from October 1 - the start of the season - until January 16, up from 591,000 tonnes the same period of the previous season, official figures show. 
But local exporters remain concerned.

The director of a European company based in Accra said production will disappoint as the recent dry spell has reduced the crop. "We [have been] forced to lower our predictions," he said.

Ghana and Ivory Coast produce more than 60 percent of the world's cocoa. Both countries' output has been hit by the weather, but the situation in Ivory Coast is more severe as farmers and middlemen there have been hoarding in anticipation of higher prices next season, a Europe-based trader said.

Ivory Coast and Ghana have introduced a $400-a-tonne living income differential or premium for their 2020-2021 cocoa sales in a bid to guarantee higher prices for farmers and combat pervasive poverty.

It is difficult to hoard in Ghana as the market is so tightly controlled by the government, the Europe-based trader said.

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Ivory Coast farmers expect strong start to cocoa main crop after rain

ABIDJAN, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast cocoa farmers predicted a strong start to the October-to-March main crop on Monday after above average rains in most of the growing regions last week.

The marketing season starts next month in the world’s top cocoa producer and farmers said they were waiting for the new government-set farmgate price, expected to be higher than last season, to sell their beans.

A mix of rainfall and sunny spells would help beans dry properly and strengthen the development of pods for harvests next year, they said.

“There is cocoa everywhere. Farmers are just waiting for the new farmgate price to sell,” said Amidou Toure, who farms near the western region of Duekoue.

“This year trees have produced lots of pods,” Toure said. “The main crop is promising.”

Data collected by Reuters showed rainfall in the western region of Man, which includes the region of Duekoue was at 41.1 millimetres (mm) last week, 7.1 mm above the five-year average.

In the centre-western region of Daloa, producing a quarter of Ivory Coast’s national output, farmers said they were cutting pods hit by the black disease to avoid contamination.

“We will have lots of beans until at least December,” said Albert N’Zue, who farms near Daloa. “But if the weather is too wet in October we can lose a lot to the black pods disease.”

Rainfall in the region of Daloa, which includes Bouafle, was 37.9 mm last week, 8.1 mm above the five-year average.

Similar comments were reported in the eastern region of Abengourou where rainfall was slightly below average and in the southern regions of Agboville and Divo, where it was above average.

In the central regions of Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro farmers remained upbeat on the main crop prospects.

In the western region of Soubre farmers said they were hoping for sunny spells in October to ensure good quality beans.

Data showed rainfall in Soubre, which includes the regions of San Pedro and Sassandra, was 24 mm last week, 2.9 mm above the five-year average.

Average temperatures ranged from 25.2 to 27.1 Celsius. (Reporting by Loucoumane Coulibaly; Editing by Juliette Jabkhiro and Alexander Smith)

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