By Jeune Afrique
It's not
Guillaume Soro's announcement that he will stand for president in Côte
d'Ivoire's 2020 election that is surprising so much as the timing.
On 12 October the former rebel leader and
prime minister under both Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, who resigned as
parliamentary Speaker following a much-publicised falling out with the president in
February, was the first to officially throw his hat in the ring.
“Several pro-Soro parties have already chosen
me as their candidate, so yes, I will be a candidate.”
In one sentence, pronounced in front of a
crowd in Valencia, Spain, Soro put an end to the fake suspense that has
surrounded his candidacy for the 2020 presidential election for several months.
Welcomed by thunderous applause from his supporters in the Spanish diaspora,
the announcement was then widely relayed by Soro’s campaign network.
One question remains: Why was
Soro in such a hurry to make his announcement? Especially
since, with just over a year to go before the presidential election in October
2020, the country’s main political parties – including the ruling RHDP – have
not yet revealed their choices.
Setting his own pace
The announcement comes a month after
a meeting in Paris between Soro and Henri Konan Bédié, the leader of the Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) who
became Alassane Ouattara’s main opponent after being his ally for eight years.
At that meeting the two men agreed to each present a ticket in the future
presidential election in the hope that they could transfer the votes of the
best-placed opposition candidate in the event of a duel with the RHDP.
“In reality, he wants to position himself as a
serious challenger – if not the most
serious challenger of the upcoming presidential election, the one who will set
the pace,” says academic and political journalist François Konan, who notes
that up until his declaration “Soro’s been hesitant, walking on eggshells”.
“Guillaume Soro is looking first and foremost
for security. He wants a status – that of a candidate – that will attract more
external attention in order to ensure his safety,” says political scientist
Sylvain N’Guessan. During his speech in Valencia, Soro accused the government
in Abidjan of having tried to get him arrested by the Spanish police the
previous week.
Formalising the break with the RHDP
“In many cases, countries are battling for the
return of their nationals who are in trouble in other countries. In my case,
it’s my country that is fighting for all other countries to arrest me,” he
said, without pointing the finger specifically. Then he added: “Don’t we have
the right as politicians to choose our own party?”
For Sylvain N’Guessan this is a
“victimisation strategy” aimed at “drawing attention to himself
in order to attract potential voters”.
“It is also about Guillaume Soro reassuring
his supporters that the divorce is indeed consummated with the RHDP,” says the
analyst, who also points out that the former Speaker wanted to silence the rumours
that have been circulating in recent weeks about a supposed truce with the
presidential party.
Distinguishing himself within the opposition
The third reason for this “premature”
statement, according to N’Guessan: “Soro’s playing his trump card against an
opposition that lacks a common strategy, that’s divided by internal crises and
personalities. He wants to have an impact in the event that the opposition opts
for a single candidate from the first round.
Until now, only Pascal Affi
N’Guessan, Laurent Gbagbo’s rival and legal
president of the Front Populaire Ivorien,
had openly declared his intention to run. The October 2020 election will be the
first to be held on the basis of a “ticket” for president and vice-president, a
new feature introduced by the 2016 constitutional reform.
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